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I can’t give you probabilities and doubt they exist since I don’t see why anyone would ever want to measure or study them. The tee design is fixed by the USGA so special tee designs that claim to reduce friction etc. are not legal, even though some of them do work better than the basic wooden tee. But when you have a ball resting on a tee and the ball is suddenly struck at over 100 miles per hour and slightly catches the edge of the tee when taking off, it can cause the tee to pop out of the ground and end up anywhere within a few feet of where it was implanted. Or, occasionally the tee will remain as it was planted. And sometimes it will break. Hope this satisfies your curiosity and you can sleep tonight. Tomorrow, let’s work on hitting the ball longer, straighter, and more accurately 😉 The answers to this SHOULD be obvious. First it is to make sure the “traffic” on the green is spread out to allow recovery of the grass. If the hole was ALWAYS in the same location, the constant treading on that location by golfers day upon day would kill the grass there, so the green would develop a large brown spot of bare ground.
Sometimes, the tee will come out of the ground at that moment and pop forward a bit. Other times it will spring back and remain in place. And other times after it reaches it’s forward press, it almost comes out of the ground but does not and instead springs backwards at which point it does come out of the ground and pop backwards. And it can do all sorts of movements in between those just described. Some of this depends on the swing. If the driver catches the ball on the upswing it will put less pressure on the tee than if it catches the ball at the bottom of the arc. And if you are actually hitting slightly down on the ball that places more pressure on the tee. Your choice of club makes a difference since with an iron you will almost always be hitting it on the downswing. If the force and direction of impact puts enough force on the tee, it will break the tee and the top half will go flying and the bottom part will stay in the ground. The tee almost always breaks when an iron is used, but rarely when a driver is used, since drivers should impact the tee on the upswing and irons on the downswing part of the arc.
A secondary reason is just to give some variety to the course. Every course has its “regulars” who play it often. By changing the pin locations, you alter the difficulty of the hole slightly and keep thing fresh, fun, and unpredictable. This is the same reason why courses alter the tee boxes as well. You will hear players say “Oh the tees on this hole are back today”. By moving the tee area, it also allows the grass to recover from the constant traffic. [It is even MORE important for the tees, because of the divot damage to the ground as well.] In general, I very much prefer to play on a course where the greens are good – well maintained, roll true (even if contoured and quick), will hold a shot into the green from the fairway, etc. That is, playing a course with predictable greens is a pleasure because you can have a good idea of how you want to play them (even if you are not playing well that day and mis-hit shots). That is, it is frustrating if it is the quality of the greens that keep you from playing well. But that is also true of the fairways. When you hit a good tee shot into the fairway, if you don’t then have a decent lie – or especially if the fairway doesn’t even keep the ball in play and it rolls off to some difficult spot – that makes it difficult to enjoy. That is, we want to be rewarded with a decent outcome if we hit a good shot – it doesn’t have to be perfect as long as the course allows you to make good contact with a shot from the fairway.
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